Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Backlund wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Geekie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs Geekie 44.9% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 53.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 77.1%
Neutral zone
Backlund 66.4%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 70.2%
70.2%
29.8%
Backlund
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Backlund
Geekie
Last 5: Backlund 3-2 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Geekie
0
1
Backlund
Geekie
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Geekie
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Geekie
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
43.7% (584)
+7.3%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
47.1% (68)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
50.0% (8)
-7.7%
On power play, Backlund has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Backlund is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (535).
Backlund shoots left. Geekie is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Backlund
Geekie
Home
51.2% (782)
45.3% (329)
Away
49.4% (765)
42.9% (331)
By Period
Backlund
Geekie
P1
51.5%
41.2%
P2
49.8%
45.0%
P3
49.9%
46.2%
OT
37.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
44.0%▬
44.0%
50.3%
Geekie
42.0%▼
44.5%
44.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 11:32 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 19:23 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 16:49 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 04:43 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |