Mikael Backlund vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 88.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 83.2%
Neutral zone
Backlund 52.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 69.8%
30.2%
69.8%
Backlund
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Backlund
MacKinnon
Last 6: Backlund 4-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Backlund
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
49.7% (1,038)
+0.8%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
63.7% (157)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
34.4% (32)
+12.7%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Backlund is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Backlund shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Backlund
MacKinnon
Home
48.1% (636)
53.1% (618)
Away
51.4% (671)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Backlund
MacKinnon
P1
45.4%
49.3%
P2
54.1%
53.0%
P3
49.2%
50.7%
OT
55.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 09:28 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 04:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 10:08 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 02:31 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |