Mikael Backlund vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 62 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 100-95 in 195 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 62.3%
Defensive zone
Backlund 71.9%
Neutral zone
Backlund 61.2%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Backlund
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
100
-
95
(195 meetings)
100
95
Backlund
MacKinnon
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
28
32
Backlund
MacKinnon
60 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
37
25
Backlund
MacKinnon
62 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
35
38
Backlund
MacKinnon
73 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,463)
46.1% (11,264)
+3.6%
Power Play
51.5% (1,338)
53.2% (1,421)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (2,465)
42.8% (502)
+1.1%
On even strength, Backlund has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Backlund is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (6,251).
Backlund shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
Home / Away
Backlund
MacKinnon
Home
49.7% (8,621)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
48.3% (8,650)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Backlund
MacKinnon
P1
48.5%
47.4%
P2
50.3%
46.6%
P3
48.4%
46.1%
OT
45.1%
48.4%
Final 5 min
48.4%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.0%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 09:28 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 04:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 10:08 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 02:31 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 07:59 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 02:14 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 15:28 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:34 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 07:44 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 12:53 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:57 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:40 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 01:20 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |