Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs Dowd 48.6% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 65.7%
Defensive zone
Backlund 52.6%
Neutral zone
Backlund 59.8%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 65.7%
65.7%
34.3%
Backlund
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Backlund
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
51.0% (671)
-0.5%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
0.0% (2)
+51.5%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
41.5% (224)
+5.6%
On power play, Backlund has a +51.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Backlund is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Backlund shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Backlund
Dowd
Home
48.1% (636)
48.2% (471)
Away
51.4% (671)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Backlund
Dowd
P1
45.4%
48.3%
P2
54.1%
46.8%
P3
49.2%
51.0%
OT
55.6%
30.0%
Final 5 min
48.5%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 11:54 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |