Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs Dowd 50.7% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 21-19 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 67.3%
Defensive zone
Backlund 57.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 52.0%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Backlund
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
21
(40 meetings)
19
21
Backlund
Dowd
Last 10: Backlund 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
12
3
Backlund
Dowd
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
13
Backlund
Dowd
15 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Backlund
Dowd
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,463)
52.3% (6,036)
-2.6%
Power Play
51.5% (1,338)
56.1% (164)
-4.6%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (2,465)
44.1% (1,638)
-0.2%
On power play, Dowd has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Backlund is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (6,251).
Backlund shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Home / Away
Backlund
Dowd
Home
49.7% (8,621)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
48.3% (8,650)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Backlund
Dowd
P1
48.5%
51.5%
P2
50.3%
50.4%
P3
48.4%
50.3%
OT
45.1%
45.9%
Final 5 min
48.4%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.0%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 11:54 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 07:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 3 | 18:55 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 19:13 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 18, 2024 | 3 | 17:22 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 18, 2024 | 3 | 10:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 18, 2024 | 3 | 10:09 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2024 | 3 | 07:08 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2024 | 3 | 05:27 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2024 | 3 | 05:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 18, 2024 | 1 | 16:21 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 3 | 05:43 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 2 | 12:59 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 1 | 16:48 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 09:18 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 11:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 06:36 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 03:12 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |