Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.8% vs 49.9%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs Foligno 49.9% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 58.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 71.4%
Neutral zone
Backlund 53.4%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Backlund
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Backlund
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Backlund
Foligno
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Foligno
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Backlund
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
49.5% (291)
+1.0%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
55.8% (43)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
47.2% (53)
-0.1%
On power play, Foligno has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Backlund shoots left. Foligno is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Backlund
Foligno
Home
48.1% (636)
48.9% (178)
Away
51.4% (671)
50.7% (209)
By Period
Backlund
Foligno
P1
45.4%
43.0%
P2
54.1%
55.9%
P3
49.2%
50.0%
OT
55.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.5%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 06:52 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 04:23 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |