Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs Zacha 51.8% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 76.7%
Defensive zone
Backlund 63.1%
Neutral zone
Zacha 58.9%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Backlund
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Backlund
Zacha
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
Backlund
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
1
Backlund
Zacha
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
53.0% (700)
-2.5%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
54.1% (109)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
39.2% (74)
+7.9%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Backlund shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Backlund
Zacha
Home
48.1% (636)
51.6% (438)
Away
51.4% (671)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Backlund
Zacha
P1
45.4%
57.0%
P2
54.1%
48.9%
P3
49.2%
50.5%
OT
55.6%
42.1%
Final 5 min
48.5%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 06:56 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 03:14 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 03:08 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 06:31 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 06:26 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 08:27 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 18:06 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |