Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.0% vs 49.2%). Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 21 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs Zacha 49.2% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 22-19 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 63.8%
Defensive zone
Backlund 64.6%
Neutral zone
Zacha 51.2%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
Backlund
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
22
(41 meetings)
19
22
Backlund
Zacha
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
6
15
Backlund
Zacha
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
7
3
Backlund
Zacha
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
6
4
Backlund
Zacha
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,463)
48.9% (5,156)
+0.8%
Power Play
51.5% (1,338)
55.7% (813)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (2,465)
42.2% (557)
+1.7%
On power play, Zacha has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,020).
Backlund shoots left. Zacha is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,965).
Home / Away
Backlund
Zacha
Home
49.7% (8,621)
49.7% (3,381)
Away
48.3% (8,650)
48.6% (3,145)
By Period
Backlund
Zacha
P1
48.5%
49.9%
P2
50.3%
49.2%
P3
48.4%
48.2%
OT
45.1%
53.5%
Final 5 min
48.4%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.0%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 06:56 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 03:14 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 03:08 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 06:31 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 06:26 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 08:27 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 18:06 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 09:20 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 17:50 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 02:04 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:32 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 19:01 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 17:22 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 07:18 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 17:46 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |