Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs Thomas 51.9% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 15-11 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Thomas 59.2%
Defensive zone
Backlund 84.1%
Neutral zone
Backlund 59.4%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Backlund
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
15
(26 meetings)
11
15
Backlund
Thomas
Last 10: Backlund 3-7 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
7
Backlund
Thomas
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
6
3
Backlund
Thomas
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
3
5
Backlund
Thomas
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
50.3% (652)
+0.2%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
61.5% (104)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
54.2% (120)
-7.1%
On power play, Thomas has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Backlund is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Backlund shoots left. Thomas is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Backlund
Thomas
Home
48.1% (636)
52.0% (400)
Away
51.4% (671)
52.3% (476)
By Period
Backlund
Thomas
P1
45.4%
49.6%
P2
54.1%
55.4%
P3
49.2%
51.0%
OT
55.6%
57.1%
Final 5 min
48.5%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 15:38 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 08:27 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 08:10 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 05:49 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 05:44 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 03:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 18:40 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 09:56 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 09:38 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 08:17 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 05:11 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 04:58 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 16:46 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:02 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 13:33 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 11:07 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 11:03 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |