Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs Donato 47.1% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 57.7%
Defensive zone
Backlund 89.2%
Neutral zone
Backlund 70.0%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Backlund
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Backlund
Donato
Last 9: Backlund 6-3 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
2
Backlund
Donato
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
5
1
Backlund
Donato
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
46.8% (297)
+3.7%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
41.0% (39)
+10.5%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
100.0% (1)
-52.9%
On penalty kill, Donato has a +52.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Backlund shoots left. Donato is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (189).
Home / Away
Backlund
Donato
Home
48.1% (636)
45.8% (142)
Away
51.4% (671)
46.7% (195)
By Period
Backlund
Donato
P1
45.4%
49.5%
P2
54.1%
45.7%
P3
49.2%
43.4%
OT
55.6%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.5%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 11:09 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 06:23 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 03:02 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:40 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 07:13 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 01:43 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:06 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |