Mikael Backlund vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 48 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.7% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 88-69 in 157 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 65.7%
Defensive zone
Backlund 87.7%
Neutral zone
Backlund 79.0%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 77.3%
77.3%
22.7%
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
88
-
69
(157 meetings)
88
69
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
23
28
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
51 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
33
15
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
48 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
32
26
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
58 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,463)
44.8% (8,775)
+4.9%
Power Play
51.5% (1,338)
50.6% (844)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (2,465)
37.8% (880)
+6.1%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,020).
Backlund shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (6,858).
Home / Away
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
49.7% (8,621)
46.5% (5,361)
Away
48.3% (8,650)
42.8% (5,150)
By Period
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
48.5%
45.1%
P2
50.3%
43.9%
P3
48.4%
45.2%
OT
45.1%
43.2%
Final 5 min
48.4%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.0%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:47 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:56 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:50 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:56 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:16 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 15:08 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 15:01 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:49 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 10:58 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 16:45 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 06:23 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 19:46 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 13:19 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 10:57 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 08:03 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 15:53 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 12:38 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 09:59 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |