Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 69.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 83.7%
Neutral zone
Backlund 60.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Backlund
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
Backlund
O'Reilly
Last 10: Backlund 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Backlund
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
2
Backlund
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
5
Backlund
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
55.7% (856)
-5.2%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
57.5% (233)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
50.0% (144)
-2.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Backlund shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Backlund
O'Reilly
Home
48.1% (636)
55.5% (616)
Away
51.4% (671)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Backlund
O'Reilly
P1
45.4%
58.1%
P2
54.1%
54.9%
P3
49.2%
53.9%
OT
55.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 06:04 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:03 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 13:15 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 11:32 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 09:29 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 08:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 08:46 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:24 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |