Mikael Backlund vs Ryan O'Reilly
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 57 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 99-64 in 163 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 88.6%
Defensive zone
Backlund 78.9%
Neutral zone
Backlund 83.5%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 83.9%
83.9%
16.1%
Backlund
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
64
-
99
(163 meetings)
64
99
Backlund
O'Reilly
Last 10: Backlund 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
18
39
Backlund
O'Reilly
57 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
27
24
Backlund
O'Reilly
51 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
19
36
Backlund
O'Reilly
55 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,463)
56.2% (15,290)
-6.5%
Power Play
51.5% (1,338)
58.7% (3,457)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (2,465)
51.4% (2,826)
-7.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,020).
Backlund shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Backlund
O'Reilly
Home
49.7% (8,621)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
48.3% (8,650)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Backlund
O'Reilly
P1
48.5%
55.6%
P2
50.3%
57.0%
P3
48.4%
55.0%
OT
45.1%
62.2%
Final 5 min
48.4%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 06:04 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 03:03 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 13:15 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 11:32 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 09:29 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 08:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 08:46 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:24 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 11:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |