Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs Carrick 52.2% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 12-5 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Carrick 54.8%
Defensive zone
Carrick 84.1%
Neutral zone
Carrick 70.8%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 71.4%
28.6%
71.4%
Backlund
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
5
(17 meetings)
12
5
Backlund
Carrick
Last 10: Backlund 8-2 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
6
0
Backlund
Carrick
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
5
3
Backlund
Carrick
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Backlund
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,463)
52.2% (2,544)
-2.5%
Power Play
51.5% (1,338)
61.3% (75)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (2,465)
50.8% (435)
-6.9%
On power play, Carrick has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Backlund is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (6,251).
Backlund shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Home / Away
Backlund
Carrick
Home
49.7% (8,621)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
48.3% (8,650)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Backlund
Carrick
P1
48.5%
51.8%
P2
50.3%
52.3%
P3
48.4%
52.6%
OT
45.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.4%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.0%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 03:32 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 10:35 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 13:09 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 08:41 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 17:38 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 04:49 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 18:40 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 16:12 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 01:22 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 15:46 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 06:46 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 03:19 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 13:56 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 03:46 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 6, 2022 | 2 | 19:58 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 3 | 16:48 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |