Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs Thompson 45.2% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 59.8%
Defensive zone
Backlund 88.5%
Neutral zone
Backlund 64.7%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 61.0%
61.0%
39.0%
Backlund
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Backlund
Thompson
Last 10: Backlund 7-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
3
Backlund
Thompson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
0
Backlund
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Backlund
Thompson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
44.6% (661)
+5.9%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
48.4% (95)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
33.3% (33)
+13.8%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Backlund is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Backlund shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Backlund
Thompson
Home
48.1% (636)
45.7% (411)
Away
51.4% (671)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Backlund
Thompson
P1
45.4%
47.7%
P2
54.1%
45.7%
P3
49.2%
40.5%
OT
55.6%
42.9%
Final 5 min
48.5%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:32 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 14:53 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:28 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 09:05 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:05 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 19:46 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:16 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 17:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 04:39 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 01:11 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |