Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs Hertl 57.5% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 13-11 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 93.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 79.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 65.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Backlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
11
(24 meetings)
13
11
Backlund
Hertl
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
8
Backlund
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
11
0
Backlund
Hertl
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Backlund
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
58.7% (858)
-8.2%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
55.8% (285)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
62.9% (35)
-15.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Backlund shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Backlund
Hertl
Home
48.1% (636)
60.1% (599)
Away
51.4% (671)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Backlund
Hertl
P1
45.4%
52.4%
P2
54.1%
63.9%
P3
49.2%
58.5%
OT
55.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:24 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 07:18 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 03:26 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:25 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 02:21 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:38 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 08:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 04:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |