Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 56 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs Hertl 54.3% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 70-50 in 120 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 65.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 82.1%
Neutral zone
Backlund 68.4%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 71.3%
71.3%
28.7%
Backlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
50
-
70
(120 meetings)
50
70
Backlund
Hertl
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
14
42
Backlund
Hertl
56 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
25
12
Backlund
Hertl
37 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
11
16
Backlund
Hertl
27 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,463)
53.9% (8,303)
-4.2%
Power Play
51.5% (1,338)
59.2% (1,995)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (2,465)
46.3% (806)
-2.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,020).
Backlund shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Backlund
Hertl
Home
49.7% (8,621)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
48.3% (8,650)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Backlund
Hertl
P1
48.5%
53.6%
P2
50.3%
54.2%
P3
48.4%
55.3%
OT
45.1%
46.9%
Final 5 min
48.4%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:24 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 07:18 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 03:26 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:25 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 02:21 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:38 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 08:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 04:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |