Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.8% vs Gourde 46.0% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 59.7%
Defensive zone
Backlund 81.7%
Neutral zone
Backlund 62.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
Backlund
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Backlund
Gourde
Last 10: Backlund 7-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
4
1
Backlund
Gourde
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
2
3
Backlund
Gourde
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (944)
47.2% (687)
+3.3%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
45.0% (20)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
33.0% (88)
+14.1%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Backlund shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Backlund
Gourde
Home
48.1% (636)
44.4% (356)
Away
51.4% (671)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Backlund
Gourde
P1
45.4%
42.2%
P2
54.1%
50.0%
P3
49.2%
44.5%
OT
55.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.5%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:04 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 16:32 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:26 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 09:06 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 06:30 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 06:21 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 03:26 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 03:15 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 15:49 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 08:36 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 01:37 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 01:26 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |