Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Granlund 49.5% vs Hertl 57.5% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Granlund 74.5%
Defensive zone
Granlund 88.4%
Neutral zone
Granlund 75.7%
Result
Mikael Granlund favored at 78.1%
78.1%
21.9%
Granlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
9
(9 meetings)
0
9
Granlund
Hertl
Last 9: Granlund 0-9 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Granlund
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Granlund
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Granlund
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Granlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (493)
58.7% (858)
-9.0%
Power Play
58.6% (111)
55.8% (285)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
31.1% (61)
62.9% (35)
-31.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +31.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Granlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (445).
Granlund shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Granlund
Hertl
Home
54.7% (276)
60.1% (599)
Away
45.8% (389)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Granlund
Hertl
P1
52.2%
52.4%
P2
49.3%
63.9%
P3
47.4%
58.5%
OT
45.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.3%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Granlund
62.0%▲
54.5%
49.5%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 05:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 03:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:06 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |