Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Granlund 48.6% vs Hertl 54.3% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 25-19 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Granlund 78.2%
Defensive zone
Granlund 69.9%
Neutral zone
Granlund 75.0%
Result
Mikael Granlund favored at 74.1%
74.1%
25.9%
Granlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
25
(44 meetings)
19
25
Granlund
Hertl
Last 10: Granlund 0-10 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
12
Granlund
Hertl
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Granlund
10
8
Granlund
Hertl
18 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Granlund
Hertl
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Granlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,765)
53.9% (8,303)
-5.3%
Power Play
53.0% (760)
59.2% (1,995)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (635)
46.3% (806)
-2.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Granlund is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,193).
Granlund shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Granlund
Hertl
Home
51.0% (3,905)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
46.4% (4,255)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Granlund
Hertl
P1
48.8%
53.6%
P2
48.7%
54.2%
P3
48.5%
55.3%
OT
43.3%
46.9%
Final 5 min
47.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Granlund
62.0%▲
54.5%
48.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 05:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 03:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 07:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:06 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 18:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 18:16 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 2 | 18:05 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 3 | 17:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 3 | 02:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 8, 2022 | 1 | 13:09 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 3 | 14:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |