Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Marner wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 42.5% vs Dowd 48.6% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 87.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 83.1%
Neutral zone
Marner 53.5%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Marner
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Marner
Dowd
Last 5: Marner 2-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Marner
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Marner
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (316)
51.0% (671)
-10.2%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
0.0% (2)
+40.0%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
41.5% (224)
-16.5%
On power play, Marner has a +40.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Marner is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (86).
Marner shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Marner
Dowd
Home
36.0% (186)
48.2% (471)
Away
45.6% (147)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Marner
Dowd
P1
40.7%
48.3%
P2
41.0%
46.8%
P3
38.6%
51.0%
Final 5 min
41.8%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
40.2%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 04:15 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 01:14 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 08:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:49 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 08:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |