Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Marner wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 42.7% vs Dowd 50.7% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 92.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.9%
Neutral zone
Marner 53.3%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Marner
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Marner
Dowd
Last 7: Marner 3-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
2
1
Marner
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Marner
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (496)
52.3% (6,036)
-10.6%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
56.1% (164)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (65)
44.1% (1,638)
-8.7%
On even strength, Dowd has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Marner is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (180).
Marner shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,681).
Home / Away
Marner
Dowd
Home
38.0% (321)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
45.7% (258)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Marner
Dowd
P1
38.7%
51.5%
P2
41.5%
50.4%
P3
45.5%
50.3%
OT
40.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
47.6%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
41.5%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 04:15 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 01:14 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 08:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:49 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 08:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 6, 2018 | 3 | 10:57 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 6, 2018 | 1 | 18:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |