Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Marner wins 39.7% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 42.5% vs McLeod 47.4% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 71.0%
Defensive zone
McLeod 67.7%
Neutral zone
Marner 54.1%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
Marner
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Marner
McLeod
Last 7: Marner 3-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
3
Marner
McLeod
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Marner
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (316)
49.0% (827)
-8.2%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
44.0% (91)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
43.0% (272)
-18.0%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Marner is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (247).
Marner shoots right. McLeod is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (415).
Home / Away
Marner
McLeod
Home
36.0% (186)
48.5% (619)
Away
45.6% (147)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Marner
McLeod
P1
40.7%
52.7%
P2
41.0%
43.9%
P3
38.6%
45.8%
Final 5 min
41.8%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
40.2%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 04:34 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 13:05 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 01:09 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |