Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Marner wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 42.7% vs McLeod 49.5% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 69.5%
Defensive zone
McLeod 58.8%
Neutral zone
Marner 52.4%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Marner
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Marner
McLeod
Last 7: Marner 3-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
3
Marner
McLeod
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Marner
McLeod
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (496)
50.4% (3,376)
-8.7%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
50.7% (296)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (65)
44.1% (644)
-8.7%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Marner is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (399).
Marner shoots right. McLeod is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,507).
Home / Away
Marner
McLeod
Home
38.0% (321)
50.0% (2,202)
Away
45.7% (258)
48.9% (2,114)
By Period
Marner
McLeod
P1
38.7%
50.8%
P2
41.5%
48.0%
P3
45.5%
50.0%
OT
40.0%
37.1%
Final 5 min
47.6%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
41.5%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 04:34 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:15 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 13:05 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 01:09 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |