Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Marner wins 39.7% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 42.5% vs Poehling 48.0% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 84.8%
Defensive zone
Poehling 71.5%
Neutral zone
Marner 53.3%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Marner
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Marner
Poehling
Last 5: Marner 2-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
Poehling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
1
2
Marner
Poehling
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Marner
Poehling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (316)
50.4% (680)
-9.6%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
58.3% (12)
-18.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
38.8% (219)
-13.8%
On power play, Poehling has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Marner is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (247).
Marner shoots right. Poehling is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
Marner
Poehling
Home
36.0% (186)
47.4% (422)
Away
45.6% (147)
48.1% (489)
By Period
Marner
Poehling
P1
40.7%
53.3%
P2
41.0%
40.3%
P3
38.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
40.2%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 13:21 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |