Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Marner wins 39.3% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 42.7% vs Poehling 48.3% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 82.2%
Defensive zone
Poehling 59.7%
Neutral zone
Marner 55.1%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Marner
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Marner
Poehling
Last 5: Marner 2-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
Poehling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
1
2
Marner
Poehling
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Marner
Poehling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (496)
49.6% (2,780)
-7.9%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
51.6% (93)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (65)
41.7% (635)
-6.3%
On even strength, Poehling has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Marner is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (399).
Marner shoots right. Poehling is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,151).
Home / Away
Marner
Poehling
Home
38.0% (321)
49.3% (1,706)
Away
45.7% (258)
47.2% (1,802)
By Period
Marner
Poehling
P1
38.7%
50.8%
P2
41.5%
47.1%
P3
45.5%
47.2%
OT
40.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.6%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
41.5%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 13:21 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |