Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Marner wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 42.5% vs Johnston 48.0% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 58.9%
Defensive zone
Johnston 76.1%
Neutral zone
Johnston 74.0%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 71.8%
28.2%
71.8%
Marner
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Marner
Johnston
Last 6: Marner 4-2 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Marner
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
3
1
Marner
Johnston
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
40.8% (316)
47.3% (666)
-6.5%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
50.7% (69)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
51.4% (35)
-26.4%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +26.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Marner is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (86).
Marner shoots right. Johnston is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (202).
Home / Away
Marner
Johnston
Home
36.0% (186)
47.5% (364)
Away
45.6% (147)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Marner
Johnston
P1
40.7%
49.4%
P2
41.0%
46.9%
P3
38.6%
47.1%
Final 5 min
41.8%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
40.2%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 08:31 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 06:45 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:31 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 13:14 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:26 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:17 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |