Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Marner wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 42.7% vs Johnston 49.0% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 60.0%
Defensive zone
Johnston 84.5%
Neutral zone
Johnston 77.9%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 76.0%
24.0%
76.0%
Marner
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Marner
Johnston
Last 6: Marner 4-2 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Marner
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
3
1
Marner
Johnston
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
41.7% (496)
49.1% (2,232)
-7.4%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
52.5% (179)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (65)
44.7% (237)
-9.3%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Marner is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (180).
Marner shoots right. Johnston is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (648).
Home / Away
Marner
Johnston
Home
38.0% (321)
49.2% (1,332)
Away
45.7% (258)
48.7% (1,316)
By Period
Marner
Johnston
P1
38.7%
50.0%
P2
41.5%
48.1%
P3
45.5%
48.6%
OT
40.0%
51.5%
Final 5 min
47.6%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
41.5%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 08:31 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 06:45 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 00:31 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 13:14 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:26 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 06:17 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |