Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Barron wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barron 46.8% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 51.6%
Defensive zone
Barron 91.3%
Neutral zone
Barron 76.2%
Result
Morgan Barron favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
Barron
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Barron
O'Reilly
Last 8: Barron 2-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
5
Barron
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barron
2
0
Barron
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Barron
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barron
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (381)
55.7% (856)
-7.1%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
57.5% (233)
-24.2%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (187)
50.0% (144)
-8.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Barron is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Barron shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Barron
O'Reilly
Home
44.4% (306)
55.5% (616)
Away
48.3% (265)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Barron
O'Reilly
P1
45.5%
58.1%
P2
49.8%
54.9%
P3
43.1%
53.9%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.3%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barron
44.0%▲
41.5%
46.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 04:51 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |