Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barron 48.0% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barron 77.7%
Defensive zone
Barron 91.6%
Neutral zone
Barron 80.9%
Result
Morgan Barron favored at 81.2%
81.2%
18.8%
Barron
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Barron
O'Reilly
Last 9: Barron 2-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
6
Barron
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barron
2
0
Barron
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Barron
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barron
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (741)
56.2% (15,290)
-6.8%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
58.7% (3,457)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (222)
51.4% (2,826)
-9.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Barron is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Barron shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Barron
O'Reilly
Home
45.2% (480)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
50.3% (489)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Barron
O'Reilly
P1
48.0%
55.6%
P2
50.7%
57.0%
P3
44.7%
55.0%
OT
25.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
46.5%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barron
44.0%▲
41.5%
47.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 04:51 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 14:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |