Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Howden on neutral-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 48.9% vs Frost 50.6% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Howden leads 15-7 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 90.8%
Defensive zone
Frost 59.5%
Neutral zone
Frost 69.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 72.6%
27.4%
72.6%
Howden
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
7
(22 meetings)
15
7
Howden
Frost
Last 10: Howden 6-4 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
4
Howden
Frost
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
4
2
Howden
Frost
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Howden
9
1
Howden
Frost
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (2,926)
49.7% (3,652)
-0.2%
Power Play
50.5% (111)
55.4% (632)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (320)
55.0% (40)
-11.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Howden is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,170).
Howden shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Home / Away
Howden
Frost
Home
48.2% (1,630)
51.4% (2,101)
Away
49.6% (1,727)
49.8% (2,223)
By Period
Howden
Frost
P1
49.5%
51.2%
P2
47.9%
51.3%
P3
49.8%
48.8%
OT
35.5%
64.9%
Final 5 min
48.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
46.0%▬
45.0%
48.9%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:03 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 04:25 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 11:55 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 01:36 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 18:39 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 06:24 | Offensive | Brett Howden |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 08:51 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 12:48 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 02:20 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Nov 25, 2024 | OT | 01:07 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 13:42 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 18:10 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 10:20 | Neutral | Brett Howden |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 03:16 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 18:37 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 08:22 | Offensive | Brett Howden |