Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Coyle wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 48.8% vs Frost 51.1% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 92.6%
Defensive zone
Coyle 68.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 58.0%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Coyle
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Coyle
Frost
Last 9: Coyle 7-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Frost
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
4
1
Coyle
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
0
Coyle
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (576)
50.3% (825)
-0.8%
Power Play
54.2% (48)
54.9% (204)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (145)
50.0% (4)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Coyle is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Coyle shoots right. Frost is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Home / Away
Coyle
Frost
Home
47.4% (409)
50.7% (489)
Away
50.0% (360)
51.7% (544)
By Period
Coyle
Frost
P1
50.8%
53.6%
P2
46.0%
47.8%
P3
48.4%
52.0%
OT
64.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
46.7%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.6%
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 08:54 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 13:55 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 10:16 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 07:09 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 06:49 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 17:46 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 10:24 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 18:45 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 3 | 08:38 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |