Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pettersson wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 47.2% vs Frost 56.4% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pettersson 89.5%
Defensive zone
Pettersson 85.5%
Neutral zone
Pettersson 85.3%
Result
Elias Pettersson favored at 86.8%
86.8%
13.2%
Pettersson
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Pettersson
Frost
Last 9: Pettersson 1-8 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
3
Pettersson
Frost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
3
Pettersson
Frost
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
2
Pettersson
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (834)
56.0% (755)
-10.1%
Power Play
55.1% (256)
60.1% (173)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (112)
88.9% (9)
-53.2%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +53.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Pettersson is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (779).
Pettersson shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Frost
Home
49.1% (607)
57.3% (497)
Away
44.7% (595)
56.8% (440)
By Period
Pettersson
Frost
P1
45.5%
60.2%
P2
48.0%
56.0%
P3
47.1%
54.8%
OT
47.1%
63.6%
Final 5 min
43.6%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
44.0%▼
52.5%
46.9%
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 15:54 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 15:44 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 01:52 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 10:18 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:46 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:35 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:29 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:24 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |