Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 45.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 48.7% vs Dowd 53.3% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 84.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 76.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 54.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 63.5%
36.5%
63.5%
Frost
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Frost
Dowd
Last 5: Frost 2-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Frost
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (426)
55.4% (771)
-8.0%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
57.1% (7)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
45.5% (165)
-25.5%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +25.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Frost is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Frost shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Frost
Dowd
Home
51.1% (221)
58.2% (462)
Away
45.9% (246)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Frost
Dowd
P1
47.5%
55.6%
P2
52.3%
50.5%
P3
44.7%
53.9%
OT
100.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
43.4%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
48.4%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2022 | 1 | 06:01 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 16:43 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 16:38 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 2 | 00:23 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 1 | 14:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |