Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 54.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.4% vs Dowd 48.6% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 96.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 69.2%
Neutral zone
Frost 82.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 96.1%
96.1%
3.9%
Frost
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Frost
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (755)
51.0% (671)
+5.0%
Power Play
60.1% (173)
0.0% (2)
+60.1%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
41.5% (224)
+47.4%
On power play, Frost has a +60.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Frost is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Frost shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Frost
Dowd
Home
57.3% (497)
48.2% (471)
Away
56.8% (440)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Frost
Dowd
P1
60.2%
48.3%
P2
56.0%
46.8%
P3
54.8%
51.0%
OT
63.6%
30.0%
Final 5 min
52.6%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 12:14 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |