Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 54.8% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.4% vs Roy 51.9% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 93.3%
Defensive zone
Roy 64.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 77.3%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 63.9%
63.9%
36.1%
Frost
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Frost
Roy
Last 7: Frost 5-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
1
Frost
Roy
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (755)
51.9% (547)
+4.1%
Power Play
60.1% (173)
54.1% (37)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
53.3% (92)
+35.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +35.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Frost is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Frost shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
Frost
Roy
Home
57.3% (497)
54.0% (328)
Away
56.8% (440)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Frost
Roy
P1
60.2%
53.5%
P2
56.0%
51.6%
P3
54.8%
51.6%
Final 5 min
52.6%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 10:08 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:06 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |