Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.6% vs Roy 48.4% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 86.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 70.5%
Neutral zone
Frost 57.9%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Frost
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Frost
Roy
Last 7: Frost 5-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
1
Frost
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Frost
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Frost
Roy
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (3,652)
48.7% (3,719)
+1.0%
Power Play
55.4% (632)
49.5% (283)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (40)
45.5% (477)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,481).
Frost shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
Frost
Roy
Home
51.4% (2,101)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
49.8% (2,223)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Frost
Roy
P1
51.2%
50.8%
P2
51.3%
46.3%
P3
48.8%
48.1%
OT
64.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 10:08 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 14:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:06 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |