Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.6% vs Zacha 49.2% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 67.5%
Defensive zone
Zacha 59.9%
Neutral zone
Frost 53.5%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Frost
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Frost
Zacha
Last 10: Frost 5-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
5
Frost
Zacha
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
4
1
Frost
Zacha
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (3,652)
48.9% (5,156)
+0.8%
Power Play
55.4% (632)
55.7% (813)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (40)
42.2% (557)
+12.8%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Frost shoots left. Zacha is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,965).
Home / Away
Frost
Zacha
Home
51.4% (2,101)
49.7% (3,381)
Away
49.8% (2,223)
48.6% (3,145)
By Period
Frost
Zacha
P1
51.2%
49.9%
P2
51.3%
49.2%
P3
48.8%
48.2%
OT
64.9%
53.5%
Final 5 min
49.0%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 19:13 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:11 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 10:02 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 17:17 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 01:29 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 14:11 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 11:24 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 02:57 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 2 | 06:58 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 1 | 17:59 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 1 | 15:13 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 1 | 02:00 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |