Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Frost wins 54.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.3% vs Thomas 51.7% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 57.9%
Defensive zone
Thomas 86.6%
Neutral zone
Thomas 74.7%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 74.4%
25.6%
74.4%
Frost
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Frost
Thomas
Last 8: Frost 3-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
0
Frost
Thomas
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
4
Frost
Thomas
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Frost
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (745)
50.2% (635)
+5.6%
Power Play
60.5% (172)
61.0% (100)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
53.4% (118)
+35.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +35.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Frost is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Frost shoots left. Thomas is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (598).
Home / Away
Frost
Thomas
Home
57.3% (497)
52.0% (400)
Away
56.6% (429)
51.9% (453)
By Period
Frost
Thomas
P1
60.1%
49.4%
P2
56.0%
55.2%
P3
54.7%
50.7%
OT
63.6%
57.1%
Final 5 min
52.0%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
57.0%
Thomas
48.0%▲
45.5%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 11:19 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 01:08 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:05 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 14:29 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:13 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 02:29 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |