Morgan Frost vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.3% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% (+10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 79.6%
Defensive zone
Frost 61.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 68.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 7: Frost 4-3 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
1
2
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
2
1
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (745)
46.0% (250)
+9.8%
Power Play
60.5% (172)
70.6% (17)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
31.8% (22)
+57.1%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +57.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Frost is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Frost shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
57.3% (497)
50.3% (175)
Away
56.6% (429)
40.4% (114)
By Period
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
60.1%
48.5%
P2
56.0%
45.9%
P3
54.7%
46.5%
OT
63.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
57.0%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 09:28 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 8, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:04 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:00 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 01:52 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |