Morgan Frost vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Morgan Frost holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Frost wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Frost 56.4% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% (+10.7%)
H2H factor Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone Frost 79.6%
Defensive zone Frost 61.8%
Neutral zone Frost 68.6%
Result Morgan Frost favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Frost Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
4 - 3 (7 meetings)
4
3
Frost Nugent-Hopkins
Last 7: Frost 4-3 Nugent-Hopkins

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
1
2
Frost Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
2
1
Frost Nugent-Hopkins
3 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (755)
46.0% (250)
+10.0%
Power Play
60.1% (173)
70.6% (17)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
31.8% (22)
+57.1%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +57.1% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Frost shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
57.3% (497)
50.3% (175)
Away
56.8% (440)
40.4% (114)
By Period
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
60.2%
48.5%
P2
56.0%
45.9%
P3
54.8%
46.5%
OT
63.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.6%
41.7%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%
63.0%
57.1%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%
48.5%
46.4%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Feb 4, 2026 1 09:28 Defensive Morgan Frost
Feb 4, 2026 1 00:00 Neutral Morgan Frost
Oct 8, 2025 OT 00:00 Neutral Morgan Frost
Oct 8, 2025 3 01:04 Offensive Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Oct 8, 2025 3 01:00 Offensive Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Oct 8, 2025 2 01:52 Offensive Morgan Frost
Oct 8, 2025 1 05:48 Neutral Ryan Nugent-Hopkins