Morgan Frost vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.6% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.7% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 15-10 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 89.5%
Defensive zone
Frost 60.0%
Neutral zone
Frost 78.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 79.7%
79.7%
20.3%
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
10
(25 meetings)
15
10
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: Frost 5-5 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
7
4
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
2
3
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
6
3
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (3,652)
44.8% (8,775)
+4.9%
Power Play
55.4% (632)
50.6% (844)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (40)
37.8% (880)
+17.2%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Frost shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (6,858).
Home / Away
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
51.4% (2,101)
46.5% (5,361)
Away
49.8% (2,223)
42.8% (5,150)
By Period
Frost
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
51.2%
45.1%
P2
51.3%
43.9%
P3
48.8%
45.2%
OT
64.9%
43.2%
Final 5 min
49.0%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 09:28 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 8, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:04 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:00 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 01:52 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 02:03 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:26 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 19:52 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 08:26 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 01:22 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 01:18 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 16:50 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:43 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 16:57 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:04 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:37 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 09:56 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |