Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Strome on defensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.6% vs Strome 44.6% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Strome leads 16-12 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 59.0%
Defensive zone
Strome 80.5%
Neutral zone
Strome 69.7%
Result
Ryan Strome favored at 72.1%
27.9%
72.1%
Frost
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
16
(28 meetings)
12
16
Frost
Strome
Last 10: Frost 6-4 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
6
2
Frost
Strome
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Strome
3
11
Frost
Strome
14 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Frost
Strome
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (3,652)
44.2% (6,887)
+5.5%
Power Play
55.4% (632)
49.2% (855)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (40)
41.5% (410)
+13.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,481).
Frost shoots left. Strome is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,773).
Home / Away
Frost
Strome
Home
51.4% (2,101)
44.4% (4,077)
Away
49.8% (2,223)
44.8% (4,075)
By Period
Frost
Strome
P1
51.2%
43.9%
P2
51.3%
45.4%
P3
48.8%
44.4%
OT
64.9%
46.3%
Final 5 min
49.0%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Strome
50.0%▲
45.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 09:51 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:52 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:27 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 14:07 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:03 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 08:17 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 13:24 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 01:50 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 01:08 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 13:07 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 04:32 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 10:25 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 3 | 19:20 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:22 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 09:09 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 1 | 00:49 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |