Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.4% vs Lorentz 49.5% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 93.8%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 51.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 62.9%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Frost
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Frost
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (755)
51.4% (74)
+4.6%
Power Play
60.1% (173)
50.0% (2)
+10.1%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
42.3% (26)
+46.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +46.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Frost shoots left. Lorentz is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (59).
Home / Away
Frost
Lorentz
Home
57.3% (497)
52.9% (68)
Away
56.8% (440)
41.2% (34)
By Period
Frost
Lorentz
P1
60.2%
58.6%
P2
56.0%
45.0%
P3
54.8%
45.5%
Final 5 min
52.6%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Lorentz
48.0%▬
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |