Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.6% vs Lorentz 48.5% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 90.8%
Defensive zone
Frost 59.1%
Neutral zone
Frost 75.8%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 75.5%
75.5%
24.5%
Frost
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Frost
Lorentz
Last 10: Frost 7-3 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Lorentz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Lorentz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
5
1
Frost
Lorentz
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (3,652)
48.9% (1,125)
+0.8%
Power Play
55.4% (632)
50.0% (26)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (40)
41.8% (91)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Frost shoots left. Lorentz is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Frost
Lorentz
Home
51.4% (2,101)
50.6% (609)
Away
49.8% (2,223)
46.3% (633)
By Period
Frost
Lorentz
P1
51.2%
53.0%
P2
51.3%
46.7%
P3
48.8%
46.2%
OT
64.9%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Lorentz
48.0%▬
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 05:30 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 17:19 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 04:49 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 10:34 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 02:33 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 09:11 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 02:00 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |