Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 45.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 46.2% vs Stamkos 53.4% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 52.3%
Defensive zone
Frost 51.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 56.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Frost
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Frost
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Frost
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (833)
55.3% (628)
-9.7%
Power Play
46.0% (100)
55.1% (216)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (18)
40.2% (87)
+15.4%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Frost is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Frost shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Home / Away
Frost
Stamkos
Home
47.0% (440)
55.5% (499)
Away
44.8% (511)
51.9% (432)
By Period
Frost
Stamkos
P1
42.5%
50.7%
P2
47.9%
53.8%
P3
46.6%
55.9%
OT
66.7%
87.5%
Final 5 min
48.5%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
45.8%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 13:17 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 09:00 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 08:46 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |