Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.5% vs 51.1%). Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.5% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 55.6%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 65.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 53.7%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Frost
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Frost
Stamkos
Last 10: Frost 6-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
4
Frost
Stamkos
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
4
2
Frost
Stamkos
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (3,642)
50.5% (9,825)
-0.9%
Power Play
55.5% (631)
55.2% (1,729)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (40)
49.6% (827)
+5.4%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,481).
Frost shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Frost
Stamkos
Home
51.4% (2,101)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
49.7% (2,212)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Frost
Stamkos
P1
51.1%
49.2%
P2
51.3%
52.7%
P3
48.7%
50.9%
OT
64.9%
54.3%
Final 5 min
48.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
50.5%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 10:46 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 14:25 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 16:18 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 13:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 06:17 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 14:16 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 01:21 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 13:17 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 09:00 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 08:46 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |