Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Ostapchuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 56.4% vs Ostapchuk 50.6% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 82.3%
Defensive zone
Ostapchuk 77.4%
Neutral zone
Ostapchuk 55.3%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 63.5%
63.5%
36.5%
Frost
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Frost
Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Ostapchuk
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
1
Frost
Ostapchuk
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (755)
52.5% (320)
+3.5%
Power Play
60.1% (173)
33.3% (3)
+26.8%
Penalty Kill
88.9% (9)
42.4% (59)
+46.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +46.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Frost is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Frost shoots left. Ostapchuk is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (262).
Home / Away
Frost
Ostapchuk
Home
57.3% (497)
49.1% (171)
Away
56.8% (440)
52.1% (211)
By Period
Frost
Ostapchuk
P1
60.2%
50.4%
P2
56.0%
46.8%
P3
54.8%
55.1%
Final 5 min
52.6%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
57.1%
Ostapchuk
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:43 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 06:32 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |