Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.6% vs Ostapchuk 48.7% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 84.9%
Defensive zone
Ostapchuk 56.9%
Neutral zone
Frost 68.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 69.2%
69.2%
30.8%
Frost
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Frost
Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
0
Frost
Ostapchuk
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
1
Frost
Ostapchuk
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
3
2
Frost
Ostapchuk
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (3,652)
49.1% (632)
+0.6%
Power Play
55.4% (632)
28.6% (7)
+26.8%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (40)
45.5% (66)
+9.5%
On power play, Frost has a +26.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Frost is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,843).
Frost shoots left. Ostapchuk is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Home / Away
Frost
Ostapchuk
Home
51.4% (2,101)
48.6% (329)
Away
49.8% (2,223)
48.4% (376)
By Period
Frost
Ostapchuk
P1
51.2%
48.5%
P2
51.3%
46.4%
P3
48.8%
50.7%
Final 5 min
49.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Ostapchuk
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:43 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 06:32 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:07 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |