Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Geekie 48.5% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 20-5 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 94.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 82.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 93.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 91.1%
91.1%
8.9%
Tavares
Geekie
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
5
(25 meetings)
20
5
Tavares
Geekie
Last 10: Tavares 8-2 Geekie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
12
3
Tavares
Geekie
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
2
Tavares
Geekie
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Geekie
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Geekie
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,150)
48.7% (2,310)
+5.3%
Power Play
56.4% (4,292)
46.0% (189)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
45.7% (129)
+4.8%
On power play, Tavares has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Geekie shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Tavares shoots left. Geekie is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,927).
Home / Away
Tavares
Geekie
Home
56.1% (10,525)
50.1% (1,283)
Away
52.7% (10,570)
46.8% (1,345)
By Period
Tavares
Geekie
P1
55.0%
48.6%
P2
54.1%
48.9%
P3
54.0%
47.7%
OT
55.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
54.4%
Geekie
46.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 18:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 03:55 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 12:43 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 10:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:25 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 03:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 02:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 02:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 16:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 02:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 18:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 13:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 09:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 05:28 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 17:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | John Tavares |